Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
